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<\/p>\nBryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Finaeon<\/p>\n
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Co-Authored by Michelle Kangas & Dr. Bryan Taylor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Warrant Buffett once said that the stock market capitalization to GDP Ratio (MC\/GDP) is \u201cprobably the best measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.\u201d\u00a0 Global Financial Data has decided to follow in Warren Buffett\u2019s footsteps and has added data on the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP for all the stock markets in the world.\u00a0 GFD has the most extensive historical data on stock market capitalization and GDP available anywhere.\u00a0 This enables us to provide data on Buffett\u2019s favorite indicator going back centuries, not decades.\u00a0 MC\/GDP data for the United States begins in 1792 and data for the United Kingdom begins in 1688.<\/p>\n There are several factors which influence the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP.\u00a0 First, countries with more multinational companies have a higher ratio than countries without.\u00a0 The MC\/GDP ratio is particularly high for Switzerland and Hong Kong because those countries have numerous multinationals listed on their exchanges. Switzerland\u2019s MC\/GDP ratio is over 200% and Hong Kong\u2019s ratio is over 1000%. Second, interest rates influence the ratio.\u00a0 Bond yields provide an opportunity cost for investing in the stock market.\u00a0 The higher bond yields are, the lower will be the MC\/GDP ratio.\u00a0 The lower bond yields are, the higher will be the ratio.\u00a0 Third, government ownership of major industries, banks and utilities reduces the MC\/GDP ratio because these industries are publicly owned rather than privately owned.\u00a0 Fourth, industrialization of the economy increases the MC\/GDP ratio and has generally increased over time.\u00a0 Fifth, whether a country relies more on markets or banks to direct capital to industry affects this ratio.\u00a0 Anglo-Saxon countries generally rely more on stock markets than continental European countries and tend to have a higher MC\/GDP ratio.\u00a0 Sixth, wars tend to redirect capital to funding government bonds and increases regulation of industry.\u00a0 This tends to reduce the MC\/GDP ratio.\u00a0 All of these factors should be taken into consideration when trying to analyze whether the MC\/GDP ratio indicates that the stock market is overvalued or undervalued for any country.<\/p>\n GFD has created a simple mnemonic that enables subscribers to quickly find data for the country they are interest in.\u00a0 The ticker begins with \u201cSC\u201d, then adds the ISO code, then adds \u201cMPC\u201d at the end, so the symbol for the market cap of the United States as a share of GDP is SCUSAMPC and for Canada it is SCCANMPC.<\/p>\n There are many things that subscribers can do with this information.\u00a0 Figure 1 compares the stock market capitalization of the United States with the outstanding government debt as a share of GDP. \u00a0\u00a0Several of the factors mentioned above are clearly visible.\u00a0 The inverse correlation between war, stock market capitalization and debt is visible during World War I and World War II.\u00a0 The impact of rising interest rates in the 1970s and falling interest rates since 1981 have clearly impacted the MC\/GDP ratio.\u00a0 Since 1980, both the debt\/GDP and the MC\/GDP ratios have risen. Over the past 50 years, the United States has deregulated many markets which has contributed to the increase in the MC\/GDP ratio.<\/p>\n Figure 1. United States Government Debt and Stock Market Capitalization to GDP, 1792 to 2018<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Global Financial Data provides data on the MC\/GDP ratio for every major stock market in the world.\u00a0 GFD provides more history for this ratio than any other data vendor.\u00a0 The MC\/GDP ratio in the United States is around 164% today.\u00a0 This is one of the highest ratios in history; however, bond yields are also at their lowest levels in history.\u00a0 Could the MC\/GDP ratio be headed to 200% as in Switzerland, or does the high ratio portend a crash as occurred at previous peaks in 1999 and 2007? Time will tell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Finaeon Co-Authored by Michelle Kangas & Dr. Bryan Taylor Warrant Buffett once said that the stock market capitalization to GDP…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[125,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-february-2020","category-insights"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2758"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2758\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2786,"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2758\/revisions\/2786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/maxrezmedia.com\/website_131ddb8a\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/BB_002_1-980x511-1.jpg\")
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